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Vaprus vs Nomme Kalju Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 11:30

Vaprus

PPG 1.17 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Nomme Kalju

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-113.4%0-214.6%0-310.5%0-4+9.5%1 1-03.8%1-18.2%1-28.9%1-36.5%1-4+5.8%2 2-01.2%2-12.5%2-22.7%2-32.0%2-4+1.8%3 3-00.2%3-10.5%3-20.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.4% 16.7% 6.00 -11.8%

Draw 20.8% 25.0% 4.00 -10.1%

Away win 65.8% 69.4% 1.44 -5.3%

Over 2.5 54.5% 60.6% 1.65 -10.1%

Over 3.5 32.5% 38.2% 2.62 -14.8%

BTTS 47.2% 57.1% 1.75 -17.4%

Home O1.5 12.6% 25.0% 4.00 -29.8%

Away O1.5 63.9% 66.7% 1.50 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob47.2%

A 66% / xG 0.6-2.2 / O2.5 55% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.6%

#2 0–1 13.4%

#3 0–3 10.5%

#4 1–1 8.2%

#5 1–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaprus0.6

Nomme Kalju2.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VAPRUS · PPG 1.17

NOMME KALJU · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Vaprus (H) 13.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -11.8%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.1%

Nomme Kalju (A) 65.8%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaprus face Nomme Kalju in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaprus a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Nomme Kalju 66%, so Nomme Kalju are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Vaprus and 2.2 for Nomme Kalju (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaprus are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 2.50 for Nomme Kalju. This match finished 3-1.

Vaprus vs Nomme Kalju Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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