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Nomme Utd vs Flora Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 16:00

Nomme Utd

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Flora

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.1%0-23.8%0-33.1%0-4+3.3%1 1-02.5%1-16.0%1-27.3%1-35.9%1-4+6.4%2 2-02.4%2-15.8%2-27.0%2-35.7%2-4+6.2%3 3-01.5%3-13.7%3-24.5%3-33.6%3-4+3.9%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.8%4+-23.4%4+-32.7%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 15.4% 6.50 +105.4%

Draw 21.2% 21.7% 4.60 -1.5%

Away win 47.2% 74.1% 1.35 -36.3%

Over 2.5 72.7% 71.4% 1.40 +1.8%

Over 3.5 52.2% 50.0% 2.00 +4.4%

BTTS 64.6% 63.7% 1.57 +1.4%

Home O1.5 57.3% 28.6% 3.50 +100.6%

Away O1.5 69.8% 75.2% 1.33 -7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob64.6%

A 47% / xG 1.9-2.4 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.3%

#2 2–2 7.0%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 1–3 5.9%

#5 2–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nomme Utd1.9

Flora2.4

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 52.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NOMME UTD · PPG 1.50

FLORA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Nomme Utd (H) 31.6%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +105.4%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -1.5%

Flora (A) 47.2%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -36.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nomme Utd face Flora in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nomme Utd a 32% chance, the draw 21% and Flora 47%, so Flora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Nomme Utd and 2.4 for Flora (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nomme Utd are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Flora. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +105.4%. This match finished 0-4.

Nomme Utd vs Flora Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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