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Nomme Kalju vs Paide Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 11:30

Nomme Kalju

PPG 1.86 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Paide

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.4%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.7%1-110.4%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.5%3-16.3%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-14.7%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 57.1% 1.75 -3.0%

Draw 24.1% 28.6% 3.50 -9.4%

Away win 20.5% 25.6% 3.90 -12.0%

Over 2.5 54.4% 57.8% 1.73 -5.9%

Over 3.5 35.7% 36.4% 2.75 -1.8%

BTTS 55.7% 58.8% 1.70 -5.3%

Home O1.5 59.1% 57.8% 1.73 +2.2%

Away O1.5 28.0% 30.8% 3.25 -5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.7%

H 55% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.4%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nomme Kalju1.9

Paide1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NOMME KALJU · PPG 1.86

PAIDE · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.86), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Nomme Kalju (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -3.0%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.4%

Paide (A) 20.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nomme Kalju face Paide in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nomme Kalju a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Paide 21%, so Nomme Kalju are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Nomme Kalju and 1.0 for Paide (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nomme Kalju are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.57 for Paide. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +2.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Nomme Kalju vs Paide Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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