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Nomme Kalju vs Paide Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Estonia - Meistriliiga · Regular Season - 15 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 11:30

Nomme Kalju

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Paide

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.4%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.7%1-110.4%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.5%3-16.3%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-14.7%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 1.75 -3.0%

Draw 24.1% 3.50 -9.4%

Away win 20.5% 3.90 -12.0%

Over 2.5 54.4% 1.73 -5.9%

Over 3.5 35.7% 2.75 -1.8%

BTTS 55.7% 1.70 -5.3%

Win probability 1X2

Nomme Kalju (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -3.0%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.4%

Paide (A) 20.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -12.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.7%

H 55% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nomme Kalju1.9

Paide1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NOMME KALJU · PPG 1.86

PAIDE · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.86), Away GOOD (1.57)

Match Preview & Prediction

Nomme Kalju face Paide in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nomme Kalju a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Paide 21%, so Nomme Kalju are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Nomme Kalju and 1.0 for Paide (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nomme Kalju are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.57 for Paide. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +2.2%.

Nomme Kalju vs Paide Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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