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Tammeka vs Vaprus Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 14:00

Tammeka

PPG 1.29 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vaprus

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.3%0-24.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.6%1-110.9%1-26.9%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.5%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.3%3-15.5%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.5%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 54.6% 1.83 -10.2%

Draw 23.7% 28.6% 3.50 -10.2%

Away win 27.2% 28.6% 3.50 -2.9%

Over 2.5 60.6% 62.5% 1.60 -3.0%

Over 3.5 38.6% 42.0% 2.38 -8.1%

BTTS 61.6% 64.5% 1.55 -4.5%

Home O1.5 54.8% 54.6% 1.83 +0.3%

Away O1.5 33.0% 44.4% 2.25 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 18.1%

Bet Hit 77%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.6%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tammeka1.7

Vaprus1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 38.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMMEKA · PPG 1.29

VAPRUS · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Tammeka (H) 49.1%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -10.2%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.2%

Vaprus (A) 27.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tammeka face Vaprus in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tammeka a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Vaprus 27%, so Tammeka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Tammeka and 1.3 for Vaprus (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tammeka are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.29 for Vaprus. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +0.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Tammeka vs Vaprus Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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