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Paide vs Kuressaare Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 14:00

Paide

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Kuressaare

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 63% chance

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.7%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.9%1-110.6%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.9%3-16.1%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-14.4%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 71.4% 1.40 -24.4%

Draw 22.9% 23.8% 4.20 -2.3%

Away win 23.1% 16.7% 6.00 +23.2%

Over 2.5 54.5% 61.7% 1.62 -11.7%

Over 3.5 32.2% 40.0% 2.50 -19.5%

BTTS 52.7% 57.1% 1.75 -7.8%

Home O1.5 55.6% 66.7% 1.50 -16.6%

Away O1.5 22.3% 25.0% 4.00 -6.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 21.7%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.6%

#2 2–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paide1.9

Kuressaare0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PAIDE · PPG 1.50

KURESSAARE · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

63%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=54.0%

Win probability 1X2

Paide (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -24.4%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -2.3%

Kuressaare (A) 23.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paide face Kuressaare in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paide a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Kuressaare 23%, so Paide are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Paide and 0.9 for Kuressaare (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paide are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.50 for Kuressaare. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Paide vs Kuressaare Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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