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Flora vs Levadia Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 16:00

Flora

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Levadia

PPG 2.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-18.0%0-25.9%0-32.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.8%1-111.5%1-28.5%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.3%2-26.1%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.7%3-14.0%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 26.7% 3.75 +29.8%

Draw 23.6% 29.4% 3.40 -11.9%

Away win 41.8% 58.8% 1.70 -28.9%

Over 2.5 63.6% 63.7% 1.57 -0.1%

Over 3.5 39.8% 42.0% 2.38 -5.3%

BTTS 61.6% 64.5% 1.55 -4.5%

Home O1.5 41.9% 36.4% 2.75 +15.2%

Away O1.5 49.4% 61.7% 1.62 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 18.1%

Bet Hit 77%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.6%

A 42% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flora1.4

Levadia1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORA · PPG 2.50

LEVADIA · PPG 2.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.50), Away EXCELLENT (2.71)

Win probability 1X2

Flora (H) 34.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +29.8%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.9%

Levadia (A) 41.8%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flora face Levadia in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flora a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Levadia 42%, so Levadia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Flora and 1.5 for Levadia (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flora are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.71 for Levadia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Flora vs Levadia Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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