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Tammeka vs Levadia Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Tammeka

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Levadia

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 69.2% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-18.8%0-210.6%0-38.5%0-4+9.0%1 1-03.3%1-18.0%1-29.6%1-37.7%1-4+8.1%2 2-01.5%2-13.6%2-24.3%2-33.5%2-4+3.7%3 3-00.5%3-11.1%3-21.3%3-31.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.4% 10.5% 9.50 +16.4%

Draw 20.8% 16.7% 6.00 +14.9%

Away win 65.8% 83.3% 1.20 -21.0%

Over 2.5 64.1% 73.5% 1.36 -12.8%

Over 3.5 40.5% 54.6% 1.83 -25.9%

BTTS 55.3% 54.6% 1.83 +1.2%

Home O1.5 23.0% 25.0% 4.00 -4.8%

Away O1.5 69.2% 80.0% 1.25 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob55.3%

A 66% / xG 0.9-2.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.0%

#4 0–3 8.5%

#5 1–3 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tammeka0.9

Levadia2.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMMEKA · PPG 1.50

LEVADIA · PPG 2.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Tammeka (H) 13.4%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +16.4%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +14.9%

Levadia (A) 65.8%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tammeka face Levadia in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tammeka a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Levadia 66%, so Levadia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Tammeka and 2.4 for Levadia (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tammeka are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.67 for Levadia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Tammeka vs Levadia Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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