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Vaprus vs Flora Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 16 ·Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 16:00

Vaprus

PPG 1.43 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Flora

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-17.7%0-28.2%0-35.8%0-4+5.1%1 1-04.3%1-19.2%1-29.8%1-36.9%1-4+6.0%2 2-02.6%2-15.4%2-25.8%2-34.1%2-4+3.6%3 3-01.0%3-12.2%3-22.3%3-31.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.6% 15.4% 6.50 +20.3%

Draw 22.0% 22.7% 4.40 -1.9%

Away win 57.4% 71.4% 1.40 -19.6%

Over 2.5 64.0% 64.5% 1.55 -0.8%

Over 3.5 41.0% 42.0% 2.38 -2.4%

BTTS 61.7% 58.8% 1.70 +4.9%

Home O1.5 37.9% 27.4% 3.65 +38.3%

Away O1.5 54.5% 70.4% 1.42 -22.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob61.7%

A 57% / xG 1.2-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 1–2✓ 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 1–3 6.9%

#5 0–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaprus1.2

Flora2.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VAPRUS · PPG 1.43

FLORA · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Vaprus (H) 20.6%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +20.3%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -1.9%

Flora (A) 57.4%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaprus face Flora in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaprus a 21% chance, the draw 22% and Flora 57%, so Flora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Vaprus and 2.1 for Flora (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaprus are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.71 for Flora. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +38.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Vaprus vs Flora Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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