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Vestri vs Aeggir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 15 ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 15:00

Vestri

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aeggir

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.2%0-22.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.5%1-17.6%1-25.3%1-32.5%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.5%2-19.1%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.1%3-17.2%3-25.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-17.5%4+-25.2%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 1.60 -13.9%

Draw 22.3% 4.10 -5.1%

Away win 23.9% 4.40 +3.1%

Over 2.5 65.9% 1.42 -6.4%

Over 3.5 42.7% 2.10 -10.3%

BTTS 63.4% 1.45 -8.1%

Win probability 1X2

Vestri (H) 53.8%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -13.9%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.1%

Aeggir (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +3.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 11%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.4%

H 54% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vestri2.4

Aeggir1.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VESTRI · PPG 1.75

AEGGIR · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Match Preview & Prediction

Vestri face Aeggir in Iceland - 1. Deild on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vestri a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Aeggir 24%, so Vestri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Vestri and 1.4 for Aeggir (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vestri are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Aeggir. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.1%.

Vestri vs Aeggir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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