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HK Kopavogur vs Afturelding Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 8 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 19:15

HK Kopavogur

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Afturelding

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.3% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.6%0-23.3%0-32.8%0-4+3.2%1 1-02.1%1-15.3%1-26.7%1-35.7%1-4+6.6%2 2-02.1%2-15.4%2-26.9%2-35.8%2-4+6.8%3 3-01.5%3-13.7%3-24.7%3-34.0%3-4+4.6%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-13.1%4+-23.9%4+-33.3%4+-4+3.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 37.7% 2.65 -17.3%

Draw 20.3% 26.0% 3.85 -13.1%

Away win 48.5% 46.5% 2.15 +4.3%

Over 2.5 74.3% 74.1% 1.35 +0.3%

Over 3.5 54.4% 54.1% 1.85 +0.6%

BTTS 65.7% 76.9% 1.30 -14.6%

Home O1.5 59.5% 56.5% 1.77 +5.3%

Away O1.5 68.3% 62.5% 1.60 +9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob65.7%

A 48% / xG 2.1-2.5 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.9%

#2 1–2 6.7%

#3 1–1 5.3%

#4 2–3 5.8%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HK Kopavogur2.1

Afturelding2.5

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.3% · O3.5 PROB 54.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HK KOPAVOGUR · PPG 3.00

AFTURELDING · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (3.00), Away EXCELLENT (3.00)

Win probability 1X2

HK Kopavogur (H) 31.2%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -17.3%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -13.1%

Afturelding (A) 48.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

HK Kopavogur face Afturelding in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HK Kopavogur a 31% chance, the draw 20% and Afturelding 49%, so Afturelding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for HK Kopavogur and 2.5 for Afturelding (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HK Kopavogur are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 3.00 for Afturelding. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +17.9%. This match finished 2-1.

HK Kopavogur vs Afturelding Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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