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Grindavik vs Fylkir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 9 ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 14:00

Grindavik

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fylkir

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.9%0-25.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.2%1-112.4%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.1%2-18.7%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.3%3-14.1%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 4.20 +82.7%

Draw 25.2% 3.95 -0.3%

Away win 31.3% 1.64 -48.7%

Over 2.5 54.0% 1.50 -19.0%

Over 3.5 32.6% 2.20 -28.3%

BTTS 55.9% 1.48 -17.3%

Win probability 1X2

Grindavik (H) 43.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +82.7%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -0.3%

Fylkir (A) 31.3%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -48.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 11%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grindavik1.4

Fylkir1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GRINDAVIK · PPG 1.33

FYLKIR · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Match Preview & Prediction

Grindavik face Fylkir in Iceland - 1. Deild on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grindavik a 44% chance, the draw 25% and Fylkir 31%, so Grindavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Grindavik and 1.2 for Fylkir (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grindavik are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Fylkir. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +82.7%.

Grindavik vs Fylkir Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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