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Leiknir R. vs Vestri Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 14:00

Leiknir R.

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Vestri

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.2%0-23.9%0-32.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.3%1-19.6%1-27.3%1-33.7%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.6%3-15.5%3-24.2%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.9%4+-23.0%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 43.5% 2.30 +6.0%

Draw 23.2% 27.8% 3.60 -9.9%

Away win 30.7% 39.2% 2.55 -21.7%

Over 2.5 64.2% 65.4% 1.53 -1.8%

Over 3.5 41.6% 42.6% 2.35 -2.2%

BTTS 63.7% 69.4% 1.44 -8.3%

Home O1.5 59.1% 54.1% 1.85 +9.3%

Away O1.5 49.4% 51.3% 1.95 -3.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.7%

H 46% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leiknir R.1.9

Vestri1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 41.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LEIKNIR R. · PPG 1.33

VESTRI · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Leiknir R. (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +6.0%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.9%

Vestri (A) 30.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leiknir R. face Vestri in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leiknir R. a 46% chance, the draw 23% and Vestri 31%, so Leiknir R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Leiknir R. and 1.5 for Vestri (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leiknir R. are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Vestri. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +9.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Leiknir R. vs Vestri Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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