Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / Aeggir vs Leiknir R.

Aeggir vs Leiknir R. Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 8 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 19:15

Aeggir

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Leiknir R.

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.8%0-24.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.3%1-112.5%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-18.9%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.8%3-14.2%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 40.0% 2.50 +13.5%

Draw 26.7% 27.4% 3.65 -1.5%

Away win 27.9% 42.6% 2.35 -20.7%

Over 2.5 53.1% 65.4% 1.53 -18.8%

Over 3.5 31.0% 42.6% 2.35 -27.2%

BTTS 55.4% 69.4% 1.44 -20.2%

Home O1.5 46.9% 51.3% 1.95 -8.6%

Away O1.5 32.0% 54.1% 1.85 -40.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aeggir1.4

Leiknir R.1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AEGGIR · PPG 1.00

LEIKNIR R. · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Aeggir (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +13.5%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.5%

Leiknir R. (A) 27.9%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aeggir face Leiknir R. in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aeggir a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Leiknir R. 28%, so Aeggir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Aeggir and 1.1 for Leiknir R. (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aeggir are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Leiknir R.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 0-3.

Aeggir vs Leiknir R. Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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