Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / Throttur R. vs HK Kopavogur

Throttur R. vs HK Kopavogur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 19:15

Throttur R.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

HK Kopavogur

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 76.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.4%0-21.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-03.0%1-14.5%1-23.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-04.8%2-17.1%2-25.3%2-32.6%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.0%3-17.5%3-25.6%3-32.8%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-112.9%4+-29.6%4+-34.8%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.0% 58.8% 1.70 +7.1%

Draw 18.0% 24.4% 4.10 -15.7%

Away win 19.0% 26.3% 3.80 -16.7%

Over 2.5 73.0% 73.5% 1.36 -0.7%

Over 3.5 53.4% 51.8% 1.93 +3.1%

BTTS 64.8% 73.5% 1.36 -11.9%

Home O1.5 76.0% 69.4% 1.44 +9.4%

Away O1.5 49.4% 45.5% 2.20 +8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.8%

H 63% / xG 3.1-1.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 7.1%

#3 4–1 5.9%

#4 3–2 5.6%

#5 2–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Throttur R.3.1

HK Kopavogur1.5

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

THROTTUR R. · PPG 2.00

HK KOPAVOGUR · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Throttur R. (H) 63.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +7.1%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -15.7%

HK Kopavogur (A) 19.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Throttur R. face HK Kopavogur in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Throttur R. a 63% chance, the draw 18% and HK Kopavogur 19%, so Throttur R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Throttur R. and 1.5 for HK Kopavogur (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Throttur R. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.00 for HK Kopavogur. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +31.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Throttur R. vs HK Kopavogur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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