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Grotta vs Grindavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Saturday, June 6, 2026, 14:00

Grotta

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Grindavik

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-15.9%0-24.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.6%1-110.4%1-27.2%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.0%3-15.5%3-23.8%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.6%4+-22.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 40.8% 2.45 +21.8%

Draw 22.9% 29.9% 3.35 -14.0%

Away win 27.4% 39.2% 2.55 -18.1%

Over 2.5 64.1% 70.4% 1.42 -9.0%

Over 3.5 39.2% 47.6% 2.10 -17.7%

BTTS 61.4% 73.5% 1.36 -16.5%

Home O1.5 55.0% 55.6% 1.80 -1.0%

Away O1.5 32.0% 55.6% 1.80 -42.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.4%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grotta1.8

Grindavik1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GROTTA · PPG 1.00

GRINDAVIK · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Grotta (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +21.8%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -14.0%

Grindavik (A) 27.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grotta face Grindavik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grotta a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Grindavik 27%, so Grotta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Grotta and 1.4 for Grindavik (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grotta are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Grindavik. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.8%.

Grotta vs Grindavik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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