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Vestri vs Volsungur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 15:00

Vestri

PPG 1.33 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Volsungur

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-16.5%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.3%1-111.2%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.1%3-15.6%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 73.5% 1.36 -28.6%

Draw 24.2% 20.8% 4.80 +9.7%

Away win 23.3% 16.1% 6.20 +26.7%

Over 2.5 54.1% 70.4% 1.42 -23.2%

Over 3.5 32.2% 47.6% 2.10 -32.4%

BTTS 55.4% 63.7% 1.57 -13.0%

Home O1.5 55.0% 75.2% 1.33 -26.9%

Away O1.5 27.9% 30.8% 3.25 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vestri1.7

Volsungur0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VESTRI · PPG 1.33

VOLSUNGUR · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=52.5%

Win probability 1X2

Vestri (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -28.6%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +9.7%

Volsungur (A) 23.3%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vestri face Volsungur in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vestri a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Volsungur 23%, so Vestri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Vestri and 0.9 for Volsungur (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vestri are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.33 for Volsungur. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.7%. This match finished 5-1.

Vestri vs Volsungur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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