Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / IR Reykjavik vs Grotta

IR Reykjavik vs Grotta Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 9 ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 14:00

IR Reykjavik

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Grotta

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 82.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a clear edge.

+14.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.4%0-21.9%0-31.7%0-4+2.2%1 1-01.3%1-13.6%1-24.8%1-34.4%1-4+5.6%2 2-01.7%2-14.6%2-26.2%2-35.6%2-4+7.2%3 3-01.5%3-13.9%3-25.3%3-34.8%3-4+6.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-14.7%4+-26.3%4+-35.6%4+-4+7.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 1.95 -31.2%

Draw 19.4% 3.85 -15.2%

Away win 45.3% 3.10 +40.4%

Over 2.5 82.0% 1.40 +14.8%

Over 3.5 57.1% 1.95 +11.3%

BTTS 68.4% 1.35 -7.7%

Win probability 1X2

IR Reykjavik (H) 35.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -31.2%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -15.2%

Grotta (A) 45.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +40.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 11%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob68.4%

A 45% / xG 2.6-2.7 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.2%

#2 2–3 5.6%

#3 3–2 5.3%

#4 1–2 4.8%

#5 3–3 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IR Reykjavik2.6

Grotta2.7

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.0% · O3.5 PROB 57.1%

Form & verdict PPG

IR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.33

GROTTA · PPG 2.25

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Match Preview & Prediction

IR Reykjavik face Grotta in Iceland - 1. Deild on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IR Reykjavik a 35% chance, the draw 19% and Grotta 45%, so Grotta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for IR Reykjavik and 2.7 for Grotta (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IR Reykjavik are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.25 for Grotta. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +55.9%.

IR Reykjavik vs Grotta Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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