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Fylkir vs Throttur R. Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 14:00

Fylkir

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Throttur R.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.2%0-23.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.9%1-19.8%1-27.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.1%3-15.8%3-24.1%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.2%4+-23.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Draw 22.6% 27.8% 3.60 -11.2%

Away win 27.5% 28.6% 3.50 -2.3%

Over 2.5 64.1% 60.6% 1.65 +5.8%

Over 3.5 41.0% 38.5% 2.60 +6.6%

BTTS 63.3% 64.5% 1.55 -1.9%

Home O1.5 55.0% 57.8% 1.73 -4.9%

Away O1.5 32.0% 39.2% 2.55 -18.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -14.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.3%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fylkir1.9

Throttur R.1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FYLKIR · PPG 3.00

THROTTUR R. · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=49.9%

Win probability 1X2

Fylkir (H) 49.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -7.7%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.2%

Throttur R. (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fylkir face Throttur R. in Iceland - 1. Deild on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fylkir a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Throttur R. 28%, so Fylkir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Fylkir and 1.4 for Throttur R. (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fylkir are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Throttur R.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Fylkir vs Throttur R. Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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