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Fortaleza vs America MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 13 ·Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 23:00

Fortaleza

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

America MG

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.60), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-13.6%0-20.9%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.0%1-17.6%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.7%2-18.0%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.7%3-15.6%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-14.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 68.3% — —

Draw 21.8% — —

Away win 9.9% — —

Over 2.5 49.5% — —

Over 3.5 28.3% — —

BTTS 47.8% — —

Win probability 1X2

Fortaleza (H) 68.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

America MG (A) 9.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 85.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.8%

H 68% / xG 2.1-0.5 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.7%

#2 1–0 16.0%

#3 3–0 11.7%

#4 1–1 7.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortaleza2.1

America MG0.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTALEZA · PPG 2.60

AMERICA MG · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.60), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortaleza face America MG in Brazil - Serie B on Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortaleza a 68% chance, the draw 22% and America MG 10%, so Fortaleza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Fortaleza and 0.5 for America MG (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortaleza are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.33 for America MG.

Fortaleza vs America MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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