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FC Cajamarca vs ADT Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 11 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 18:00

FC Cajamarca

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

ADT

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 38.2% — a clear edge.

+48.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.1%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.1%1-110.9%1-25.4%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.0%3-15.9%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 38.2% 2.62 +48.0%

Draw 23.0% 29.4% 3.40 -21.8%

Away win 20.5% 39.4% 2.54 -47.9%

Over 2.5 52.7% 50.0% 2.00 +5.4%

Over 3.5 30.5% 28.2% 3.55 +8.3%

BTTS 52.4% 57.8% 1.73 -9.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.4%

H 56% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.1%

#2 1–1 10.9%

#3 2–0 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Cajamarca1.8

ADT1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FC CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.00

ADT · PPG 0.80

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

FC Cajamarca (H) 56.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +48.0%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -21.8%

ADT (A) 20.5%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV -47.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Cajamarca face ADT in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Cajamarca a 56% chance, the draw 23% and ADT 21%, so FC Cajamarca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FC Cajamarca and 1.0 for ADT (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Cajamarca are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.80 for ADT. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +48.0%. This match finished 2-2.

FC Cajamarca vs ADT Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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