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Vikingur R. vs KR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 10 ·Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 19:15

Vikingur R.

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

KR Reykjavik

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 83.7% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.3%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.1%1 1-00.8%1-11.4%1-21.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-01.9%2-13.2%2-22.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.9%3-14.9%3-24.2%3-32.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-012.6%4+-121.3%4+-218.1%4+-310.2%4+-4+6.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 68.3% 1.44 -1.7%

Draw 17.4% 5.10 -6.8%

Away win 14.3% 5.00 -17.1%

Over 2.5 83.7% 1.20 +0.4%

Over 3.5 73.0% 1.50 +9.5%

BTTS 68.4% 1.28 -12.4%

Win probability 1X2

Vikingur R. (H) 68.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -1.7%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -6.8%

KR Reykjavik (A) 14.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 82%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob68.4%

H 68% / xG 4.7-1.7 / O2.5 84% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 5.8%

#2 5–1 5.4%

#3 3–1 4.9%

#4 4–2 4.9%

#5 5–2 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vikingur R.4.7

KR Reykjavik1.7

COMBINED 6.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.7% · O3.5 PROB 73.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKINGUR R. · PPG 2.60

KR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.60) > Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Match Preview & Prediction

Vikingur R. face KR Reykjavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vikingur R. a 68% chance, the draw 17% and KR Reykjavik 14%, so Vikingur R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.7 for Vikingur R. and 1.7 for KR Reykjavik (6.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 84% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vikingur R. are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 2.25 for KR Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +35.8%.

Vikingur R. vs KR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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