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Stjarnan vs Breidablik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 10 ·Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 19:15

Stjarnan

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Breidablik

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 77.0% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.7%0-23.7%0-33.3%0-4+4.2%1 1-02.0%1-15.2%1-27.0%1-36.2%1-4+7.9%2 2-01.9%2-15.0%2-26.7%2-35.9%2-4+7.6%3 3-01.2%3-13.2%3-24.2%3-33.8%3-4+4.8%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.3%4+-23.1%4+-32.8%4+-4+3.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 30.7% 2.75 -15.6%

Draw 20.4% 4.10 -9.8%

Away win 48.9% 2.00 -2.2%

Over 2.5 77.0% 1.28 -1.4%

Over 3.5 53.2% 1.70 -9.6%

BTTS 68.4% 1.25 -14.5%

Win probability 1X2

Stjarnan (H) 30.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.6%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -9.8%

Breidablik (A) 48.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 82%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob68.4%

A 49% / xG 1.9-2.7 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.0%

#2 2–2 6.7%

#3 1–3 6.2%

#4 1–1 5.2%

#5 2–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stjarnan1.9

Breidablik2.7

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.0% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

STJARNAN · PPG 0.50

BREIDABLIK · PPG 1.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.50) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Match Preview & Prediction

Stjarnan face Breidablik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stjarnan a 31% chance, the draw 20% and Breidablik 49%, so Breidablik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Stjarnan and 2.7 for Breidablik (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stjarnan are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Breidablik. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.0%.

Stjarnan vs Breidablik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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