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IA Akranes vs Valur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 10 ·Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 19:15

IA Akranes

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Valur

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-14.2%0-24.2%0-32.8%0-4+2.2%1 1-03.9%1-17.8%1-27.8%1-35.2%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.7%2-17.3%2-27.3%2-34.9%2-4+3.8%3 3-02.3%3-14.6%3-24.6%3-33.0%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-13.3%4+-23.3%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 47.6% 2.10 -8.0%

Draw 21.6% 26.3% 3.80 -10.8%

Away win 34.5% 36.4% 2.75 -5.1%

Over 2.5 65.9% 74.1% 1.35 -11.0%

Over 3.5 42.7% 54.1% 1.85 -21.0%

BTTS 63.4% 76.9% 1.30 -17.6%

Home O1.5 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Away O1.5 50.8% 55.6% 1.80 -8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.4%

A 34% / xG 1.9-2.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 1–2 7.8%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 1–3 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IA Akranes1.9

Valur2.0

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

IA AKRANES · PPG 0.67

VALUR · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.50) strong but model favors Home (P=43.8%)

Win probability 1X2

IA Akranes (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -8.0%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.8%

Valur (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

IA Akranes face Valur in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IA Akranes a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Valur 35%, so IA Akranes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for IA Akranes and 2.0 for Valur (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IA Akranes are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.50 for Valur. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.3%. This match finished 1-0.

IA Akranes vs Valur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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