Today / Iceland - Úrvalsdeild / IA Akranes vs Valur
IA Akranes vs Valur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild
Regular Season - 10 ·Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 19:15
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Win probability
Correct score prediction
A 34% / xG 1.9-2.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%
Form & verdict
IA AKRANES · PPG 0.67
VALUR · PPG 1.50
Caution: Away form (1.50) strong but model favors Home (P=43.8%)
Match Preview & Prediction
IA Akranes face Valur in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IA Akranes a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Valur 35%, so IA Akranes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for IA Akranes and 2.0 for Valur (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IA Akranes are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.50 for Valur. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.3%.