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Varnamo vs Helsingborg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 12 ·Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 17:00

Varnamo

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Helsingborg

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+10.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.9%0-23.5%0-32.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-04.4%1-17.9%1-27.1%1-34.3%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.5%2-18.0%2-27.2%2-34.4%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.0%3-15.5%3-24.9%3-33.0%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-14.4%4+-24.0%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 46.5% 2.15 -5.8%

Draw 21.6% 27.8% 3.60 -13.3%

Away win 34.5% 33.3% 3.00 +3.5%

Over 2.5 65.9% 59.9% 1.67 +10.1%

Over 3.5 42.7% 37.7% 2.65 +13.2%

BTTS 63.4% 65.4% 1.53 -3.0%

Home O1.5 57.6% 52.6% 1.90 +9.4%

Away O1.5 50.8% 43.5% 2.30 +16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.4%

H 44% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varnamo2.0

Helsingborg1.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VARNAMO · PPG 1.40

HELSINGBORG · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Varnamo (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -5.8%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.3%

Helsingborg (A) 34.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Varnamo face Helsingborg in Sweden - Superettan on Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varnamo a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Helsingborg 35%, so Varnamo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Varnamo and 1.8 for Helsingborg (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varnamo are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Helsingborg. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +16.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Varnamo vs Helsingborg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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