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Rochedale vs Moreton City E. Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 09:15

Rochedale

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Moreton City E.

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.8%0-25.4%0-35.1%0-4+7.1%1 1-02.0%1-15.7%1-28.0%1-37.5%1-4+10.5%2 2-01.5%2-14.2%2-25.9%2-35.6%2-4+7.8%3 3-00.7%3-12.1%3-22.9%3-32.7%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.1%4+-21.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.4% 17.9% 5.60 +11.9%

Draw 21.0% 20.8% 4.80 +0.5%

Away win 57.6% 71.4% 1.40 -19.4%

Over 2.5 72.6% 75.2% 1.33 -3.4%

Over 3.5 47.8% 54.1% 1.85 -11.6%

BTTS 65.1% 69.0% 1.45 -5.6%

Home O1.5 43.4% 36.4% 2.75 +19.4%

Away O1.5 69.4% 76.9% 1.30 -9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-5

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob65.1%

A 58% / xG 1.5-2.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.0%

#2 1–3 7.5%

#3 1–1 5.7%

#4 2–2 5.9%

#5 2–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rochedale1.5

Moreton City E.2.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 47.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ROCHEDALE · PPG 1.29

MORETON CITY E. · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Rochedale (H) 21.4%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +11.9%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +0.5%

Moreton City E. (A) 57.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rochedale face Moreton City E. in Australia - Queensland NPL on Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rochedale a 21% chance, the draw 21% and Moreton City E. 58%, so Moreton City E. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Rochedale and 2.8 for Moreton City E. (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rochedale are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.17 for Moreton City E.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +19.4%. This match finished 2-5.

Rochedale vs Moreton City E. Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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