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Gold C. Knights vs Q. Lions Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 09:30

Gold C. Knights

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Q. Lions

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 77.0% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.3%0-22.9%0-32.5%0-4+2.9%1 1-01.9%1-14.9%1-26.3%1-35.4%1-4+6.4%2 2-02.1%2-15.3%2-26.8%2-35.8%2-4+6.9%3 3-01.5%3-13.8%3-24.9%3-34.2%3-4+5.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-13.4%4+-24.4%4+-33.7%4+-4+4.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 34.1% 3.55 +21.1%

Draw 20.9% 4.10 -8.6%

Away win 44.9% 1.75 -21.4%

Over 2.5 77.0% 1.33 +2.4%

Over 3.5 53.2% 1.85 -1.6%

BTTS 68.4% 1.35 -7.7%

Win probability 1X2

Gold C. Knights (H) 34.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +21.1%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -8.6%

Q. Lions (A) 44.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -21.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob68.4%

A 45% / xG 2.2-2.6 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.8%

#2 1–2 6.3%

#3 2–3 5.8%

#4 1–1 4.9%

#5 1–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gold C. Knights2.2

Q. Lions2.6

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.0% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GOLD C. KNIGHTS · PPG 2.33

Q. LIONS · PPG 2.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.33), Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Match Preview & Prediction

Gold C. Knights face Q. Lions in Australia - Queensland NPL on Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gold C. Knights a 34% chance, the draw 21% and Q. Lions 45%, so Q. Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Gold C. Knights and 2.6 for Q. Lions (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gold C. Knights are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.25 for Q. Lions. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.0%.

Gold C. Knights vs Q. Lions Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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