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Norrkoping vs Varberg BoIS Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 12 ·Monday, June 15, 2026, 17:05

Norrkoping

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Varberg BoIS

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-18.4%0-25.7%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.9%1-112.0%1-28.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.4%2-18.6%2-25.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.0%3-14.1%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 47.6% 2.10 -16.8%

Draw 25.8% 28.2% 3.55 -5.1%

Away win 34.6% 31.3% 3.20 +10.7%

Over 2.5 54.4% 57.1% 1.75 -4.8%

Over 3.5 32.5% 35.1% 2.85 -7.4%

BTTS 55.7% 63.7% 1.57 -12.6%

Home O1.5 41.6% 51.8% 1.93 -19.7%

Away O1.5 33.0% 40.8% 2.45 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.7%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 0–0 6.2%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norrkoping1.4

Varberg BoIS1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NORRKOPING · PPG 1.75

VARBERG BOIS · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.75) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.20)

Win probability 1X2

Norrkoping (H) 39.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -16.8%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.1%

Varberg BoIS (A) 34.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Norrkoping face Varberg BoIS in Sweden - Superettan on Monday, June 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norrkoping a 40% chance, the draw 26% and Varberg BoIS 35%, so Norrkoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Norrkoping and 1.3 for Varberg BoIS (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norrkoping are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.20 for Varberg BoIS. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Norrkoping vs Varberg BoIS Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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