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Norrkoping vs Varberg BoIS Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 12 ·Monday, June 15, 2026, 17:05

Norrkoping

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Varberg BoIS

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-18.4%0-25.7%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.9%1-112.0%1-28.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.4%2-18.6%2-25.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.0%3-14.1%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 2.10 -16.8%

Draw 25.8% 3.55 -5.1%

Away win 34.6% 3.20 +10.7%

Over 2.5 54.4% 1.75 -4.8%

Over 3.5 32.5% 2.85 -7.4%

BTTS 55.7% 1.57 -12.6%

Win probability 1X2

Norrkoping (H) 39.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -16.8%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.1%

Varberg BoIS (A) 34.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +10.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.7%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 0–0 6.2%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norrkoping1.4

Varberg BoIS1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NORRKOPING · PPG 1.75

VARBERG BOIS · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.75) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.20)

Match Preview & Prediction

Norrkoping face Varberg BoIS in Sweden - Superettan on Monday, June 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norrkoping a 40% chance, the draw 26% and Varberg BoIS 35%, so Norrkoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Norrkoping and 1.3 for Varberg BoIS (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norrkoping are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.20 for Varberg BoIS. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.7%.

Norrkoping vs Varberg BoIS Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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