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Floresta vs Figueirense Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 22:30

Floresta

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Figueirense

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-110.1%0-23.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.6%1-112.5%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.9%2-17.8%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.5%3-13.2%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 47.6% 2.10 +1.4%

Draw 28.8% 35.7% 2.80 -11.6%

Away win 22.8% 27.0% 3.70 -9.4%

Over 2.5 40.1% 35.1% 2.85 +14.3%

Over 3.5 22.8% 16.7% 6.00 +22.1%

BTTS 47.8% 44.4% 2.25 +7.5%

Home O1.5 41.6% 37.0% 2.70 +12.3%

Away O1.5 24.3% 23.8% 4.20 +1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.8%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.1%

#2 1–0 17.6%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Floresta1.2

Figueirense0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.1% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORESTA · PPG 1.60

FIGUEIRENSE · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Floresta (H) 48.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +1.4%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.6%

Figueirense (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Floresta face Figueirense in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Floresta a 48% chance, the draw 29% and Figueirense 23%, so Floresta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Floresta and 0.7 for Figueirense (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Floresta are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.25 for Figueirense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Floresta vs Figueirense Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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