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Brusque vs Ituano Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:00

Brusque

PPG 2.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ituano

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+39.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.5%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.0%1-19.4%1-24.1%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.9%3-16.8%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-15.8%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 50.0% 2.00 +14.0%

Draw 22.5% 33.3% 3.00 -19.5%

Away win 20.4% 27.0% 3.70 -14.7%

Over 2.5 60.7% 43.5% 2.30 +39.6%

Over 3.5 37.5% 23.8% 4.20 +57.5%

BTTS 52.7% 51.8% 1.93 +1.7%

Home O1.5 61.8% 44.4% 2.25 +39.1%

Away O1.5 21.7% 28.2% 3.55 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 1–1 9.4%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 3–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brusque2.1

Ituano0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BRUSQUE · PPG 2.57

ITUANO · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.22 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Brusque (H) 57.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +14.0%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -19.5%

Ituano (A) 20.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brusque face Ituano in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brusque a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Ituano 20%, so Brusque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Brusque and 0.9 for Ituano (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brusque are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 0.71 for Ituano. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +57.5%.

Brusque vs Ituano Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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