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Caxias vs Botafogo PB Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 21:30

Caxias

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Botafogo PB

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-19.0%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.1%1-112.4%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-18.5%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.1%3-13.9%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 52.4% 1.91 -7.2%

Draw 28.1% 32.3% 3.10 -7.7%

Away win 23.3% 26.0% 3.85 -6.2%

Over 2.5 43.6% 46.5% 2.15 -6.3%

Over 3.5 23.0% 25.6% 3.90 -6.2%

BTTS 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Home O1.5 39.5% 47.6% 2.10 -17.1%

Away O1.5 20.1% 28.6% 3.50 -17.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.1%

#2 1–1 12.4%

#3 0–0 11.7%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caxias1.4

Botafogo PB0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CAXIAS · PPG 2.14

BOTAFOGO PB · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Caxias (H) 48.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -7.2%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.7%

Botafogo PB (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caxias face Botafogo PB in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caxias a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Botafogo PB 23%, so Caxias are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Caxias and 0.8 for Botafogo PB (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caxias are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.00 for Botafogo PB. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.1%.

Caxias vs Botafogo PB Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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