Today / Brazil - Serie C / Confiança vs AO Itabaiana

Confiança vs AO Itabaiana Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 21:30

Confiança

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

AO Itabaiana

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.4%0-112.7%0-24.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.7%1-112.9%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.0%2-16.6%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.1%3-12.2%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 51.3% 1.95 -13.6%

Draw 31.1% 33.3% 3.00 -6.7%

Away win 24.5% 25.3% 3.95 -1.9%

Over 2.5 35.9% 42.6% 2.35 -15.6%

Over 3.5 17.8% 23.1% 4.33 -13.8%

BTTS 46.5% 50.0% 2.00 -7.0%

Home O1.5 35.0% 44.4% 2.25 -21.3%

Away O1.5 20.1% 26.0% 3.85 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.5%

H 44% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.4%

#2 1–0 17.7%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Confiança1.0

AO Itabaiana0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 17.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CONFIANÇA · PPG 1.43

AO ITABAIANA · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.29, combined xG 1.75 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Confiança (H) 44.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -13.6%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.7%

AO Itabaiana (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Confiança face AO Itabaiana in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Confiança a 44% chance, the draw 31% and AO Itabaiana 25%, so Confiança are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Confiança and 0.7 for AO Itabaiana (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Confiança are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.14 for AO Itabaiana. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.2%.

Confiança vs AO Itabaiana Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie C Predictions