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Floresta vs Maringá Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 15 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 23:00

Floresta

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Maringá

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+24.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.3%0-24.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.1%1-110.8%1-27.2%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.3%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.0%3-15.3%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.4%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 34.7% 2.88 +33.9%

Draw 25.3% 32.3% 3.10 -12.9%

Away win 28.3% 43.5% 2.30 -20.9%

Over 2.5 60.7% 48.8% 2.05 +24.4%

Over 3.5 37.5% 27.0% 3.70 +38.8%

BTTS 60.7% 55.6% 1.80 +9.3%

Home O1.5 53.5% 36.4% 2.75 +47.1%

Away O1.5 41.9% 42.6% 2.35 -1.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -30.9%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.7%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Floresta1.7

Maringá1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORESTA · PPG 1.57

MARINGÁ · PPG 1.57

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Floresta (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +33.9%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.9%

Maringá (A) 28.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Floresta face Maringá in Brazil - Serie C on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Floresta a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Maringá 28%, so Floresta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Floresta and 1.3 for Maringá (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Floresta are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.57 for Maringá. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +86.5%.

Floresta vs Maringá Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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