Today / Brazil - Serie C / Santa Cruz vs Figueirense

Santa Cruz vs Figueirense Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 20:00

Santa Cruz

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Figueirense

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-17.3%0-22.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.0%1-110.8%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-18.1%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.0%3-14.0%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 20.0% — — —

Over 2.5 43.6% — — —

Over 3.5 23.0% — — —

BTTS 46.7% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.7%

H 54% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.0%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 2–0 14.1%

#4 1–1 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Cruz1.5

Figueirense0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA CRUZ · PPG 1.67

FIGUEIRENSE · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Santa Cruz (H) 53.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Figueirense (A) 20.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Cruz face Figueirense in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Cruz a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Figueirense 20%, so Santa Cruz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Santa Cruz and 0.6 for Figueirense (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Cruz are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.29 for Figueirense.

Santa Cruz vs Figueirense Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie C Predictions