Today / Brazil - Serie C / Amazonas vs Paysandu

Amazonas vs Paysandu Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 23:30

Amazonas

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Paysandu

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-18.9%0-25.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.9%1-112.5%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-18.9%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.6%3-14.2%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% — — —

Draw 26.5% — — —

Away win 27.8% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.7%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Amazonas1.4

Paysandu1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AMAZONAS · PPG 1.43

PAYSANDU · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Amazonas (H) 45.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Paysandu (A) 27.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Amazonas face Paysandu in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Amazonas a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Paysandu 28%, so Amazonas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Amazonas and 1.1 for Paysandu (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Amazonas are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.50 for Paysandu.

Amazonas vs Paysandu Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie C Predictions