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Ypiranga-RS vs Barra Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:00

Ypiranga-RS

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Barra

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.9%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.6%1-112.1%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.2%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.1%3-14.7%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 52.4% 1.91 -11.9%

Draw 26.4% 32.3% 3.10 -10.9%

Away win 27.5% 25.3% 3.95 +5.2%

Over 2.5 51.2% 47.6% 2.10 +7.5%

Over 3.5 30.0% 26.0% 3.85 +15.5%

BTTS 55.4% 54.1% 1.85 +2.5%

Home O1.5 46.3% 47.6% 2.10 -2.8%

Away O1.5 36.4% 28.6% 3.50 +27.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 0–0 6.9%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ypiranga-RS1.5

Barra1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

YPIRANGA-RS · PPG 1.71

BARRA · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ypiranga-RS (H) 46.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -11.9%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.9%

Barra (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ypiranga-RS face Barra in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ypiranga-RS a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Barra 28%, so Ypiranga-RS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ypiranga-RS and 1.1 for Barra (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ypiranga-RS are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.14 for Barra. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +27.4%.

Ypiranga-RS vs Barra Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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