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Los Andes vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 18:00

Los Andes

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

San Telmo

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+34.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-13.8%0-20.5%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.4%1-16.5%1-20.9%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-020.0%2-15.6%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.4%3-13.2%3-20.4%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-12.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.5% 54.6% 1.83 +34.5%

Draw 21.0% 34.5% 2.90 -39.1%

Away win 5.4% 20.0% 5.00 -73.0%

Over 2.5 32.0% — — —

Over 3.5 14.0% — — —

BTTS 19.8% 41.7% 2.40 -52.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob19.8%

H 74% / xG 1.7-0.3 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 20%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 23.4%

#2 2–0 20.0%

#3 0–0✓ 13.7%

#4 3–0 11.4%

#5 1–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Andes1.7

San Telmo0.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS ANDES · PPG 1.00

SAN TELMO · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Los Andes (H) 73.5%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +34.5%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -39.1%

San Telmo (A) 5.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -73.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Andes face San Telmo in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Andes a 74% chance, the draw 21% and San Telmo 5%, so Los Andes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Los Andes and 0.3 for San Telmo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 20% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Andes are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.67 for San Telmo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Los Andes vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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