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Itabaiana vs Ituano Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 19:30

Itabaiana

PPG 0.25 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Ituano

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-116.1%0-210.9%0-34.9%0-4+2.2%1 1-09.3%1-112.5%1-28.4%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-03.6%2-14.8%2-23.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.9%3-11.2%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.9% 35.1% 2.85 -22.6%

Draw 30.3% 32.3% 3.10 -6.1%

Away win 47.8% 42.0% 2.38 +13.8%

Over 2.5 43.2% 46.5% 2.15 -7.1%

Over 3.5 22.8% 25.3% 3.95 -6.0%

BTTS 47.8% 54.6% 1.83 -12.5%

Home O1.5 33.0% 35.7% 2.80 -7.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 40.8% 2.45 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob47.8%

A 48% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 16.1%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 0–2 10.9%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Itabaiana0.8

Ituano1.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ITABAIANA · PPG 0.25

ITUANO · PPG 0.80

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: POOR form (0.80) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Itabaiana (H) 21.9%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -22.6%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.1%

Ituano (A) 47.8%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Itabaiana face Ituano in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Itabaiana a 22% chance, the draw 30% and Ituano 48%, so Ituano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Itabaiana and 1.3 for Ituano (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Itabaiana are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 0.80 for Ituano. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Itabaiana vs Ituano Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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