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SC Bastia vs Saint-Etienne Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 18:00

SC Bastia

PPG 0.79 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Saint-Etienne

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDL

// Model verdict

Away 52% chance

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+11.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-118.9%0-213.0%0-36.0%0-4+2.8%1 1-08.4%1-111.5%1-27.9%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-02.6%2-13.5%2-22.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.5%3-10.7%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.5% 27.0% 3.70 -39.0%

Draw 27.9% 30.3% 3.30 -7.9%

Away win 55.6% 50.0% 2.00 +11.2%

Over 2.5 32.0% 50.0% 2.00 -36.0%

Over 3.5 14.1% 28.2% 3.55 -50.0%

BTTS 34.1% 56.5% 1.77 -39.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob34.1%

A 56% / xG 0.6-1.4 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.9%

#2 0–0 13.7%

#3 0–2 13.0%

#4 1–1 11.5%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SC Bastia0.6

Saint-Etienne1.4

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SC BASTIA · PPG 0.79

SAINT-ETIENNE · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

52%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

SC Bastia (H) 16.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -39.0%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.9%

Saint-Etienne (A) 55.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

SC Bastia face Saint-Etienne in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SC Bastia a 17% chance, the draw 28% and Saint-Etienne 56%, so Saint-Etienne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for SC Bastia and 1.4 for Saint-Etienne (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SC Bastia are averaging 0.79 points per game versus 1.67 for Saint-Etienne. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 2-0.

SC Bastia vs Saint-Etienne Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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