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Metz vs Rodez Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Metz

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDD ·

UPCOMING

Rodez

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-18.4%0-25.7%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.0%1-112.0%1-28.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.4%2-18.6%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.0%3-14.1%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 50.0% 2.00 -21.4%

Draw 24.5% 29.0% 3.45 -9.3%

Away win 36.2% 28.2% 3.55 +28.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 57.1% 1.75 -5.9%

Over 3.5 32.1% 35.1% 2.85 -8.5%

BTTS 55.9% 62.5% 1.60 -10.6%

Home O1.5 39.9% 54.1% 1.85 -26.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 37.0% 2.70 +13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metz1.4

Rodez1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

METZ · PPG 1.64

RODEZ · PPG 1.56

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Metz (H) 39.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -21.4%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.3%

Rodez (A) 36.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Metz face Rodez in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metz a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Rodez 36%, so Metz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Metz and 1.3 for Rodez (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metz are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.56 for Rodez. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.9%.

Metz vs Rodez Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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