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Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Dunkerque

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLL ·

UPCOMING

Clermont Foot

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.3%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.4%1-111.7%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.5%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.5%3-15.1%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 58.8% 1.70 -20.9%

Draw 24.2% 27.0% 3.70 -6.3%

Away win 29.3% 21.1% 4.75 +23.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.6% 1.83 -1.6%

Over 3.5 31.7% 32.3% 3.10 -1.7%

BTTS 55.2% 57.8% 1.73 -4.5%

Home O1.5 48.1% 56.5% 1.77 -14.9%

Away O1.5 33.2% 29.0% 3.45 +14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.2%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dunkerque1.6

Clermont Foot1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNKERQUE · PPG 1.40

CLERMONT FOOT · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dunkerque (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -20.9%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.3%

Clermont Foot (A) 29.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dunkerque face Clermont Foot in France - Ligue 2 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dunkerque a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Clermont Foot 29%, so Dunkerque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dunkerque and 1.1 for Clermont Foot (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dunkerque are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.95 for Clermont Foot. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +26.9%.

Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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