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PAU vs Sochaux Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

PAU

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLD ·

UPCOMING

Sochaux

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-112.7%0-26.3%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.5%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.2%2-17.2%2-23.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.5%3-12.5%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 45.5% 2.20 -20.4%

Draw 32.0% 30.8% 3.25 +4.0%

Away win 31.8% 31.3% 3.20 +1.8%

Over 2.5 40.3% 47.6% 2.10 -15.4%

Over 3.5 20.9% 26.7% 3.75 -13.0%

BTTS 48.0% 55.6% 1.80 -13.6%

Home O1.5 30.8% 44.4% 2.25 -30.7%

Away O1.5 29.9% 33.9% 2.95 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.0%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–0 13.5%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PAU1.1

Sochaux1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PAU · PPG 0.92

SOCHAUX · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.06, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

PAU (H) 36.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -20.4%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +4.0%

Sochaux (A) 31.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

PAU face Sochaux in France - Ligue 2 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PAU a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Sochaux 32%, so PAU are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for PAU and 1.0 for Sochaux (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PAU are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.36 for Sochaux.

PAU vs Sochaux Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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