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Boulogne vs Dijon Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Boulogne

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDD ·

UPCOMING

Dijon

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-112.5%0-26.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.0%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.0%2-17.3%2-23.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.5%3-12.6%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 37.0% 2.70 +4.8%

Draw 29.6% 32.3% 3.10 -4.9%

Away win 31.6% 37.0% 2.70 -14.7%

Over 2.5 42.7% 43.5% 2.30 -1.8%

Over 3.5 20.9% 23.1% 4.33 -5.7%

BTTS 49.1% 52.4% 1.91 -6.2%

Home O1.5 30.8% 35.7% 2.80 -13.8%

Away O1.5 32.2% 35.7% 2.80 -9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.1%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 0–0 12.1%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boulogne1.1

Dijon1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BOULOGNE · PPG 1.07

DIJON · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.05, combined xG 2.12 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Boulogne (H) 38.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +4.8%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.9%

Dijon (A) 31.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boulogne face Dijon in France - Ligue 2 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boulogne a 39% chance, the draw 30% and Dijon 32%, so Boulogne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Boulogne and 1.0 for Dijon (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boulogne are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.36 for Dijon. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +4.0%.

Boulogne vs Dijon Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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