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Reims vs Guingamp Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Reims

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWW ·

UPCOMING

Guingamp

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLD ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.2%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.2%1-110.2%1-25.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.8%3-16.4%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.9%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Draw 22.9% 27.4% 3.65 -9.8%

Away win 23.3% 24.4% 4.10 -2.7%

Over 2.5 61.4% 58.8% 1.70 +4.4%

Over 3.5 40.1% 37.0% 2.70 +8.3%

BTTS 60.8% 62.5% 1.60 -2.7%

Home O1.5 55.8% 57.8% 1.73 -3.5%

Away O1.5 33.2% 34.7% 2.88 -4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.8%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 1–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Reims1.9

Guingamp1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

REIMS · PPG 1.82

GUINGAMP · PPG 0.84

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Reims (H) 53.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -3.2%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.8%

Guingamp (A) 23.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Reims face Guingamp in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Reims a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Guingamp 23%, so Reims are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Reims and 1.1 for Guingamp (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Reims are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.84 for Guingamp. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.3%.

Reims vs Guingamp Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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