Today / France - Ligue 2 / Saint Etienne vs Montpellier

Saint Etienne vs Montpellier Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

Saint Etienne

PPG 2.16 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWW ·

UPCOMING

Montpellier

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-18.5%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.9%1-112.4%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-19.1%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.9%3-14.4%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 65.4% 1.53 -22.6%

Draw 26.0% 24.4% 4.10 +4.0%

Away win 23.4% 17.2% 5.80 +21.4%

Over 2.5 50.4% 59.9% 1.67 -15.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 37.7% 2.65 -14.4%

BTTS 51.3% 58.8% 1.70 -12.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 64.5% 1.55 -38.1%

Away O1.5 25.8% 28.2% 3.55 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.3%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.9%

#2 1–1 12.4%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Saint Etienne1.5

Montpellier0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SAINT ETIENNE · PPG 2.16

MONTPELLIER · PPG 1.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Saint Etienne (H) 50.6%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -22.6%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +4.0%

Montpellier (A) 23.4%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Saint Etienne face Montpellier in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Saint Etienne a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Montpellier 23%, so Saint Etienne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Saint Etienne and 0.9 for Montpellier (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Saint Etienne are averaging 2.16 points per game versus 1.86 for Montpellier. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.7%.

Saint Etienne vs Montpellier Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - Ligue 2 Predictions