Today / Estonia - Meistriliiga / Paide vs Kuressaare

Paide vs Kuressaare Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 14:00

Paide

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kuressaare

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-15.6%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.3%1-110.5%1-24.5%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.1%3-16.1%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 67.6% 1.48 -17.6%

Draw 22.6% 23.8% 4.20 -3.0%

Away win 21.7% 18.5% 5.40 +10.3%

Over 2.5 53.4% 65.4% 1.53 -18.3%

Over 3.5 32.2% 42.6% 2.35 -24.3%

BTTS 52.6% 62.5% 1.60 -15.8%

Home O1.5 53.6% 69.0% 1.45 -22.3%

Away O1.5 20.5% 31.3% 3.20 -20.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paide1.9

Kuressaare0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PAIDE · PPG 1.78

KURESSAARE · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Paide (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -17.6%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.0%

Kuressaare (A) 21.7%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paide face Kuressaare in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paide a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Kuressaare 22%, so Paide are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Paide and 0.9 for Kuressaare (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paide are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.70 for Kuressaare. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.0%.

Paide vs Kuressaare Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Estonia - Meistriliiga Predictions