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Vaprus vs FC Levadia Tallinn Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 16:00

Vaprus

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Levadia Tallinn

PPG 2.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-16.3%0-28.3%0-37.2%0-4+8.9%1 1-02.6%1-17.0%1-29.1%1-38.0%1-4+9.9%2 2-01.5%2-13.8%2-25.0%2-34.4%2-4+5.5%3 3-00.5%3-11.4%3-21.9%3-31.6%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.6% 10.0% 10.00 +69.6%

Draw 20.2% 18.5% 5.40 +5.5%

Away win 58.2% 82.0% 1.22 -29.0%

Over 2.5 67.0% 70.4% 1.42 -4.9%

Over 3.5 44.8% 48.8% 2.05 -8.2%

BTTS 62.1% 56.5% 1.77 +9.9%

Home O1.5 32.6% 23.1% 4.33 +41.2%

Away O1.5 67.8% 80.0% 1.25 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob62.1%

A 58% / xG 1.1-2.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.1%

#2 0–2 8.3%

#3 1–1 7.0%

#4 1–3 8.0%

#5 0–3 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaprus1.1

FC Levadia Tallinn2.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VAPRUS · PPG 1.60

FC LEVADIA TALLINN · PPG 2.80

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.52 for Away, form 1.60 vs 2.80

Win probability 1X2

Vaprus (H) 21.6%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +69.6%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +5.5%

FC Levadia Tallinn (A) 58.2%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -29.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaprus face FC Levadia Tallinn in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaprus a 22% chance, the draw 20% and FC Levadia Tallinn 58%, so FC Levadia Tallinn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Vaprus and 2.6 for FC Levadia Tallinn (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaprus are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.80 for FC Levadia Tallinn. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +59.7%.

Vaprus vs FC Levadia Tallinn Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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