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Flora Tallinn vs Laagri Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 16:00

Flora Tallinn

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Laagri

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.0%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.5%1-17.5%1-23.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.5%2-19.4%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-08.0%3-17.9%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-19.0%4+-24.5%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 65.4% 1.53 -12.8%

Draw 21.6% 23.8% 4.20 -5.6%

Away win 21.3% 21.1% 4.75 +0.7%

Over 2.5 63.6% 67.6% 1.48 -5.9%

Over 3.5 40.6% 45.5% 2.20 -10.7%

BTTS 55.4% 65.4% 1.53 -15.2%

Home O1.5 64.0% 69.0% 1.45 -7.2%

Away O1.5 28.7% 35.1% 2.85 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 57% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–1 7.5%

#4 3–0 8.0%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flora Tallinn2.5

Laagri1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORA TALLINN · PPG 1.67

LAAGRI · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.52 for Home, form 1.67 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Flora Tallinn (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -12.8%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.6%

Laagri (A) 21.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flora Tallinn face Laagri in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flora Tallinn a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Laagri 21%, so Flora Tallinn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Flora Tallinn and 1.0 for Laagri (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flora Tallinn are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Laagri. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.9%.

Flora Tallinn vs Laagri Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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