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PKKU vs TPV Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Group Stage ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 11:00

PKKU

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

TPV

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.4%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.4%1-18.0%1-23.0%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.4%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.6%3-17.3%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.8%4+-17.5%4+-22.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.1% 69.4% 1.44 -9.1%

Draw 20.3% 23.8% 4.20 -8.8%

Away win 16.6% 20.0% 5.00 -10.2%

Over 2.5 64.2% 71.4% 1.40 -10.1%

Over 3.5 39.8% 52.4% 1.91 -24.0%

BTTS 52.2% 66.7% 1.50 -21.7%

Home O1.5 61.0% 73.5% 1.36 -17.0%

Away O1.5 24.3% 36.4% 2.75 -19.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 12.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.2%

H 63% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.3%

#2 3–0 9.6%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PKKU2.4

TPV0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PKKU · PPG 1.75

TPV · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

PKKU (H) 63.1%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -9.1%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -8.8%

TPV (A) 16.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

PKKU face TPV in Finland - Ykkönen on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PKKU a 63% chance, the draw 20% and TPV 17%, so PKKU are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for PKKU and 0.8 for TPV (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PKKU are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.00 for TPV. This match finished 2-2.

PKKU vs TPV Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Match Preview & Prediction

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