Today / Finland - Ykkönen / OLS Oulu vs KuPS Ak.

OLS Oulu vs KuPS Ak. Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Group Stage ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 15:30

OLS Oulu

PPG 2.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

KuPS Ak.

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-11.9%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.3%1-15.6%1-22.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.3%2-18.3%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.2%3-18.2%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-014.2%4+-112.6%4+-25.6%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.9% 73.5% 1.36 -11.7%

Draw 17.5% 21.7% 4.60 -11.7%

Away win 17.6% 16.7% 6.00 +3.4%

Over 2.5 66.3% 76.9% 1.30 -13.8%

Over 3.5 46.1% 57.8% 1.73 -20.3%

BTTS 60.2% 69.4% 1.44 -13.3%

Home O1.5 77.8% 75.2% 1.33 +3.5%

Away O1.5 22.9% 36.4% 2.75 -22.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 12.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob60.2%

H 65% / xG 3.0-0.9 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.3%

#2 3–0 9.2%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 4–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OLS Oulu3.0

KuPS Ak.0.9

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.1%

Form & verdict PPG

OLS OULU · PPG 2.40

KUPS AK. · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=64.9%

Win probability 1X2

OLS Oulu (H) 64.9%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -11.7%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -11.7%

KuPS Ak. (A) 17.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

OLS Oulu face KuPS Ak. in Finland - Ykkönen on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OLS Oulu a 65% chance, the draw 18% and KuPS Ak. 18%, so OLS Oulu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for OLS Oulu and 0.9 for KuPS Ak. (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OLS Oulu are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.20 for KuPS Ak.. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.9%. This match finished 2-2.

OLS Oulu vs KuPS Ak. Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Ykkönen Predictions