Today / Finland - Ykkönen / OLS Oulu vs SalPa

OLS Oulu vs SalPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Group Stage ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 13:00

OLS Oulu

PPG 2.25 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

SalPa

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.1%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.6%1-111.6%1-27.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.4%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.2%3-15.1%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 45.5% 2.20 -1.2%

Draw 24.8% 30.3% 3.30 -10.9%

Away win 30.3% 35.7% 2.80 -15.2%

Over 2.5 59.6% 66.7% 1.50 -10.6%

Over 3.5 36.3% 45.5% 2.20 -20.1%

BTTS 57.4% 69.4% 1.44 -17.3%

Home O1.5 54.2% 55.6% 1.80 -2.4%

Away O1.5 32.0% 50.0% 2.00 -36.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.4%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 9.6%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OLS Oulu1.6

SalPa1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OLS OULU · PPG 2.25

SALPA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=44.9%

Win probability 1X2

OLS Oulu (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -1.2%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.9%

SalPa (A) 30.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

OLS Oulu face SalPa in Finland - Ykkönen on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OLS Oulu a 45% chance, the draw 25% and SalPa 30%, so OLS Oulu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for OLS Oulu and 1.2 for SalPa (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OLS Oulu are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.25 for SalPa. This match finished 5-0.

OLS Oulu vs SalPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Match Preview & Prediction

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